Whatever...

Is the internet putting fortune tellers out of business?

By Richard Scarlett

The term predictive search got a whole new meaning this week, with news that our online activities could potentially be used to alert the powers that be about everything from flu pandemics, surges in unemployment, stock market crashes and serious criminal activity – all before they've even happened.

No, it's not a re-release of that Tom Cruise movie Minority Report, nor is it an excerpt from the plot of a new JJ Abrams TV series, nor have we introduced October’s answer to April Fools' Day.  Instead, a US computer scientist has apparently found a virtually infallible correlation between the Dow Jones and Twitter, with the suggestion that the general mood on the social networking site could potentially predict the stock market three days in advance. 

If this wasn’t weird enough, it's also been claimed that search engine queries can be used to predict flu epidemics as accurately as government organisations, and can offer an indication of unemployment trends even sooner than those who are paid to analyse these things.  It made me think back to a simpler time, when online behaviour and tweets were used simply to assess the popularity of Beyonce or Justin Bieber during a particular week.  Now it seems that the questions have taken a turn for the serious and become 'are you likely to commit murder' or 'are you patient zero in a global bird flu crisis'?

Bear in mind that this all comes in the same week that the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced the plausibility of plans to use algorithms, online behaviour and computers to enable the US government to predict when someone is about to commit a serious crime, and you'll see why I'm finding this more than a bit peculiar.

Don't get me wrong, if someone I knew was plotting a violent crime, or a devastating global flu pandemic was imminent, a little heads up would be nice – but at the risk of sounding cynical, I have my doubts about the prophetic abilities of Twitter and Google.  That said, you only have to check out the Facebook ads to see how far user targeting technology has come (though it's probably best not to think about how much personal information must've been collected for advertisers to know that I might be interested in an annual Men's Health subscription or the latest flight prices to New York).  It's no secret that the internet is getting creepy, and that invisible, easily-forgotten trail we leave behind with each website visited is becoming increasingly (and uncomfortably) apparent.

However, the (main) problem with relying too much on this data to predict something as serious as a crime is that internet users are fickle (I'm allowed to say that, because I am one).  If I were caught short some day and searched for information on picking a lock or getting into a car without a key, would that place me on some strange burglar-in-waiting watch list somewhere?  If I were having an off day and conducted a rigorous search for fail-safe remedies for flu symptoms, would I be on the way to sparking a global panic?

Reading all of this, it seems to me that we're just three shaven-headed precogs away from being caught up in a truly bizarre science fiction movie.  Which is pretty sad, and very worrying, when you really think about it.

 

Map of online communities - how do you interact online?

Randall Munroe, author of cult webcomic xkcd, has created a map that presents the size and popularity of social networking sites as fictional countries.  When asked about the map, Munroe explained that it, "Uses size to represent total social activity in a community – that is, how much talking, playing, sharing or other socialising happens there. This meant some comparing of apples and oranges, but I did my best to be consistent."

How does this compare to how you interact online?  Here at JK, we’re pretty surprised that Farmville appears to be more popular than YouTube!

Where do you like it?

by Alexandra Radius

Over the past two weeks, women on Facebook have been reavealing where they like it… but don’t worry they are just talking about their handbags.  They are posting where they like to put their handbag when they come home, but the word ‘handbag’ is conveniently left out to keep everyone intrigued.

The goal is to draw attention to the need for breast cancer research funding (without actually raising money) following a very successful Facebook breast cancer campaign last year, where woman gave details of their bra colour.

In French, it was a little more difficult to reach the same level of ambigiuty but we managed a little innuendo with  “J’aime que ce soit….”. (Everyone of course remembers the subjunctive from school :))

The concept of this viral marketing campaign has proved to be fairly popular, especially as it’s for a good cause, but some are asking questions about its effectiveness and in particular about the relationship between handbags and breast cancer.  But, at the end of the day, does it really matter? The buzz created has succeeded in stimulating people’s curiosity  and has lead to thousands of articles with only one message: support breast cancer research and don’t forget to go take a breast exam.  Sounds like a a pretty great result from a viral campaign to me.

Mobile blues

by Lindsey Challis

The Mobile Marketing Association was set to be an exciting affair for a Tuesday thanks to Kony Solutions.  Big brands giving a glimpse into the future of mobile tech presented in shimmering PowerPoint bliss.  A self confessed champion of the exaggerated pitch or amusing extrapolation – the concept mobile was right up my street – and I was rubbing shoulders with its future inventors!  So imagine my excitement when we were told to swap phones with the person next to us – or not so much...

...my enthusiasm for mobile, has not quite been matched by my bank balance as of yet.  That, combined with a two year mobile phone contract, and an unfortunate incident resulting in a cracked screen translated into complete humiliation as I swapped my sub standard brick with a shiny iPhone 4.

The presenter proved his point that the mobile has a personal connection, one that you rarely want to share with (or in my case expose to) the stranger next to you.  He argued that the mobile reveals so much about its owner that the potential it holds will transform the marketing world. 

But the question is –what does my mobile say about me - a slightly clumsy, financially frigid technophobe in need of an upgrade?  Or more so, I would hope, a tech enthusiast interested in everything, but not for quite long enough to warrant an investment that may be outdated in a flash.

All the gadget gurus and device developers out there – my final say – you show me quality and longevity, and I’ll show you investment!

And a final request –anyone got a phone they could lend me?

Geotaggers map major cities

This set of images on Flickr (by Eric Fishcer) is a pretty cool use of geo-tagging.  Each is a map of a city, ordered by the number of pictures taken in the central cluster of each one.  Below is London, for example. 

In the digital age, can politicians ever really distance themselves from the past?

By Richard Ratcliffe

Last Tuesday, Ed Milliband addressed the Labour conference for the first time as party leader and made a concerted effort to break from his party’s time in power. During the speech he highlighted his belief that Labour had made a string of errors on issues including the Iraq war, tuition fees, immigration and the economy.

While some may be pleased to hear him talk with such candour, is it really possible for established politicians to break from the past in this way? In addition to comprehensive online news archives, websites like www.whatdotheyknow.com and www.theyworkforyou.com allow voters to easily access a range of information right down to the way MPs vote on individual issues.

For example, by checking Milliband’s voting record, we discover that despite his conviction the invasion of Iraq was wrong, he has consistently voted against an investigation into it. Further analysis reveals Milliband rarely rebels against his party, which may lead some to conclude he probably would have towed the party line, had he been an MP in 2003 when the Iraq war vote was held.

These may not be groundbreaking revelations, but they do give an insight into the gap between what politicians say and how they act, and into the increasing transparency that the internet is bringing to the UK’s politics. When combined with the reach that social media can provide, these tools give ordinary voters the unprecedented ability to hold inconsistent politicians to account.